Russia's corporate bond market to grow 13.9% in 2026 amid refinancing surge
Russia's Corporate Bond Market to Grow by 13.9% in 2026, Expert RA Forecasts
The market for corporate bonds will expand by 13.9% in 2026, Gulnaz Galieva, Managing Director for Corporate Ratings at Expert RA, announced at the Strategic Session on the Financial Market forum organized by the agency on April 15. This growth rate remains below current interest levels, indicating that new borrowings will primarily go toward restructuring and repaying existing debt rather than funding new projects. While defaults are expected to rise, bonds rated AA and above appear risk-free, she noted. Against the backdrop of declining interest rates, retail investors have already sharply increased their exposure to the debt market.
Excluding structured bonds, securitized instruments, and digital financial assets, the corporate bond market grew by 11.5% in 2025 and is projected to expand by 13.9% in 2026, reaching 32 trillion rubles by year-end. In the first quarter of 2026, the volume of primary corporate bond placements remained flat compared to the same period last yearâexcluding Rosneft's 460 billion ruble issueâGalieva reported.
The key driver of market growth will be refinancing needs: Expert RA estimates that issuers will have to repay 3.4 trillion rubles in bonds (excluding early redemptions) in 2026âa 2.5-fold increase over the actual repayments made the previous year. The peak repayment period, totaling 1.617 trillion rubles, will fall in the fourth quarter.
Rustem Kafiatullin, Director of the Debt Capital Department at Sinara Investment Bank, assessed the business sector's refinancing requirements for 2026 at 6.6 trillion rubles.
Market growth projections for corporate bonds suggest that issuers will primarily raise funds to service and repay existing debt rather than to finance new investment programs.
