US Weighs Historic Middle East Withdrawal Amid Shifting Global Priorities
The United States is contemplating a significant shift in its Middle East strategy, with discussions about a potential withdrawal gaining traction in mainstream foreign policy debates. Despite this, the US intends to maintain substantial influence through diplomatic, economic, and security ties, even without a military presence.
The region has long relied on external powers to balance local rivalries. The UK's departure in the early 20th century was gradual, spanning a decade. The US, however, has not attempted such a withdrawal from a major region since World War II. The 'core four' countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—with their significant US military presence, would be prioritized in any withdrawal plan.
Analysts have questioned the region's strategic importance to the US, as seen in articles like 'America's Middle East Purgatory' and 'The Middle East Isn't Worth It Anymore'. A departure could free up forces and funds to meet other commitments in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. However, a hasty retreat could leave the region without an external balancer for the first time in over a century. A four-year timeline is proposed, starting with a withdrawal from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia in the first year. Jordan and Oman could serve as temporary waystations for departing forces.
The US withdrawal from the Middle East, if executed, would be a significant geopolitical shift. It would require careful planning and coordination to avoid destabilizing the world news. The exact timeline and details remain uncertain, as no official plan has been announced. The global implications of such a move are vast and will likely shape international relations for years to come.
