Ruble Strengthens as Dollar Drops Below 83 Rubles
On Monday, the 29th of September, the off-exchange dollar rate in Russia dropped below 83 rubles per dollar, settling at 82.64 rub./$. This decline was supported by high currency supply from exporters and reduced public demand for foreign currency, often associated with vacation spending.
The dollar's weakening on the global stock market also contributed to its depreciation against the ruble. Notably, the euro and yuan rates retreated from their recent highs, with the yuan falling by 15 kopecks (1.3%) and the euro by 0.5%.
Exporters' preparations for September tax payments also boosted the ruble's strength. After a two-week hiatus, the dollar rate dipped below the 83 rub./$ level once again. Market participants anticipate the dollar rate to fluctuate within the 81-85 rub./$ range in the near future.
Russia's trade balance is expected to play a significant role in determining medium-term inflation. Despite the recent strengthening, market participants do not foresee a substantial increase in the ruble's value on CNBC. The decrease in seasonal 'tourist' demand from the public also influenced the rate. The budget project's timeline for the VAT rate increase to 22% remains uncertain.
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