Climate Change to Bring 'Day Zero' Droughts to 74% of Regions by 2100
Climate change is set to exacerbate heatwaves, dry periods, and droughts, posing a significant threat to global water security. A new forecast by Vecchia Ravinandrasana and Christian Franzke of Busan University predicts 'Day-Zero-Droughts', where water supplies run out completely, could become increasingly common by the end of the century.
Under high emission scenarios, such as SSP3-7.0, 74% of today's drought-prone regions will be at high risk of severe drought and 'Day Zero' by 2100. Even under moderate climate protection measures, like SSP2-4.5, 51% of these regions face the same fate. Extreme water scarcity occurs when rainfall is low, evaporation is high, and water flows into rivers and reservoirs are insufficient to meet demand.
Cities are particularly vulnerable. Rome, Cape Town, and Chennai have already faced severe water shortages, with 'Day-Zero-Droughts' narrowly averted. By 2100, nearly three-quarters of today's drought-prone regions may not be able to provide water to their residents at some point. In some hotspots, these extreme water shortages could occur as early as this decade, putting up to 753 million people worldwide, including 467 million in urban areas, at risk.
Urgent action is needed to mitigate climate change and adopt water-saving plans. Cities must prioritize water conservation and resilience to ensure sustainable water supplies for their residents. The predictions serve as a stark warning of the water crises that lie ahead if we fail to address climate change effectively.
